Summer month May. Vilfand about the upcoming summer, crop prospects and floods

Weekly “Argumenty i Fakty” No. 18. With entry into cash. Will ATMs dispense money? 04/05/2022

Scientific Director of the Hydrometeorological Center, Honored Meteorologist of Russia Roman Vilfand told Arguments and Facts where the early fires came from, what to expect from floods and special operations.

“AiF”: — Roman Mendelevich, what will the summer be like?

Roman Vilfand: — Let me remind you that such long-term forecasts — It's definitely a thankless task. But still I will say that so far we predict a comfortable summer in temperate latitudes with temperatures near and above normal. There will be frequent periods of hot, dry weather followed by periods of heavy rainfall.

— The fires started early this year , and Does mean more burns than usual?

— The situation with fire danger in a number of regions is not at all simple. This year, a high fire danger was already predicted in advance in the Asian part of the country and in some other regions. The fire danger is especially strong in the east of the Stavropol Territory, things are slightly better in Dagestan, in the Irkutsk region, in the Transbaikalia. The threat of fires in the Amur region, in Buryatia, in the south of the Khabarovsk Territory, in fact, in the entire Asian part of the country. In all these regions, there was little snow in winter, it melted very quickly, there is traditionally little precipitation, and this year it has fallen even less than the norm. Therefore, the soil is parched and the conditions for a fire hazard exist. But the reason is not only in the prevailing natural conditions. People also, alas, “help.” Because many people still have an opinion about the incredible benefits of last year's grass, this dry grass burns. That if      the reason forest is often purely natural, then in landscape fires, then there     fields, man is always to blame.

By the way, in almost the entire European part of the country, the situation is completely different. Here the soil is well moistened, because the winter was snowy. That that even if there is hot weather without rain, capillary moisture will come from highly moistened soil, and there are no prerequisites for fires here.

&mdash ; There was a lot of snow, but floods passed without consequences?

In the center, in the west, in the south of European Russia, the floods have almost passed. But at the same time, in the dangerous flood level is predicted in                     This year, the soil was very weakly frozen, and in many regions in the center of European Russia, in the Moscow region, it did not freeze at all, it was thawed. And  this contributed to the fact that the melted snow is absorbed into the soil, does not leave along the catchment area of ​​the riverbed, as is the case with a large depth of soil freezing.

Therefore, there were no significant flood conditions. But in April a lot of snow fell, in Moscow the snow depth was 21 cm, for example, and the soil was no longer able to absorb additional moisture. That's why the  water is now rising in parts of the rivers.

And in the north, the flood is still ahead. It is predicted in May of a normal, moderate level. A difficult situation is predicted in the great Siberian rivers: both the Lena and  Yenisei. But that's yet to come. We  will warn of the possibility of potentially dangerous situations.

— Snowywinter gives hopefor a good harvest this year?

— There are winter and spring crops. Winter crops overwintered very well, winter even contributed to the fact that in many regions where not very good conditions were observed even during the sowing autumn, they improved. Winter crops give 45-50% of the total gross harvest. Since the soil moisture is good, it means that the sowing of spring crops will also be quite successful. So, as they say, the  harvest prospects are good.

— There are fewer planes flying over Europe, is it good for the environment?

— Aircraft pollution is not the most serious. The main problem — is the use of fuel. And now, when environmental issues in the world have somewhat moved aside, it can be stated that this year will not be the best for combating the consequences of climate warming.

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